ELECTION ROUNDUP - AT 9:51 A.M. ET:  Lots of chatter and analysis today about the latest polls and what they show.

Overall – Republicans doing very well, on track to take the House.  The Senate remains a steep climb.  Senate races are tightening, but we learn this isn't unusual.  From the L.A. Times:

According to Real Clear Politics, there are eight Senate races where one candidate's lead in the polls is no greater than 4%.

Two surveys released Tuesday showed Democrat Joe Sestak with his first lead over Republican Pat Toomey in the Pennsylvania Senate race since just after he won the state's May primary. Kentucky’s Jack Conway has pulled to within 5% of Republican Rand Paul; an internal poll by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee shows him ahead.

A new CNN poll released today showed Republicans Joe Miller and Lisa Murkowski tied in the Alaska Senate race; Murkowski is running a write-in campaign after losing the GOP primary in August. Contests have also closed in Colorado, Washington and California, all seats held by Democrats...

....The number of competitive races is not unusual, experts say, even with the heightened focus this year. In fact, in each of the last five election cycles, the Cook Political Report has ranked nine seats as tossups by Election Day.

Those tossup races "tend to break disproportionally toward one party" once the votes are counted, according to Jennifer Duffy, Senate race analyst for the respected handicapper.

COMMENT:  We're looking at Pennsylvania, which is turning into a possible heartbreaker for Republicans, although GOP turnout on election day can save it for Pat Toomey.

Also looking at California and Washington.  Carly Fiorina is closing on the unspeakable Barbara Boxer, and Dino Rossi is closing on the barely speakable Patty Murray.  Again, turnout can erase any small Dem edge.  But the Dems have a superb ground game ("get out the vote" effort) in both states, which may negate GOP enthusiasm.  Watch these.

Republicans are at risk, not only in Pennsylvania, but in Kentucky, when slightly flakey Rand Paul is being chased by Jack Conway.  Also at risk in Colorado, where another bit of a flake job, Republican Ken Buck, is blowing his lead by foolish statements.  Once again, I must express disappointment with the quality of some Republican nominees.  They are simply not performing, not professional enough.  We hope they win, but let's learn the lesson. 

In Illinois, though, Republican Mark Kirk seems to be pulling into a respectable lead against the Democrat whose name I can't spell.

And in West Virginia, Rasmussen now shows Republican Raese with a seven-point lead over Democrat Manchin.

We'll keep you informed, day by day.

October 20, 2010